Mobile: the next 3 years
3G will finally arrive, and the Mobile Internet will start to realise its potential. However, growth in Mobile Internet use (beyond email, IM) will be slow until useability and reliability issues are smoothed, and the perceived cost is reduced.
To accelerate uptake, a new generation of Mobile content is needed which reflects the unique characteristics of a mobile device platform (screen size, location, etc). Location sensing will likely form an important part of delivering this, but at least in Europe, rollout of such applications will be done cautiously due to privacy issues.
[Sidenote: I'm not sure I agree with the quote in the above chart 100% but it's good for provoking discussion. The reason I don't agree 100% is because it depends on the ad. Some ads (admittedly a very select few) are so entertaining, funny, thoughtprovoking etc that they're enjoyable. They're also usually quite short, ideal as something to dip in and out of when you've got a spare few mins. But the key is, it's got to be something people want. It can't be interruptive and getting in the way of what you're trying to do, like on TV 'oldschool' style.]
Music and mobile games are the “killer apps” in terms of mobile content so far, and will continue to be a mainstay of offerings. Branded mobile games will become far more widespread as they become easier to access.
Bluetooth use will rocket and in urban areas become the standard means of transferring information in physical locations (e.g., in-store, by a poster, at a bus-stop). Bluetooth will also move beyond the playground (where it is currently already in widespread use) to everyone as a means of virally transferring information from one phone to another without incurring Operator charges.
Metropolitan-wide Wireless initiatives (WiFi, WiMAX, etc) will continue to spread, and in 3 years Wireless access in big cities will be seen as equivalent to other utilities such as electricity and transport. Devices will emerge which support both WiFi and Mobile network (e.g., 3G) access. WiFi home networking (or equivalent) will be mainstream.
"What you get today is not real broadband, especially if you’re talking about hi-def television. Satellites are fast enough, but they don’t give you a two-way connection. That’s why we’re looking very seriously at building out a WiMax network in the US" - Rupert Murdoch quoted in Wired in July 2006.
But... "Despite WiFly's ubiquity — with 4,100 hot spot access points reaching 90 percent of the population — just 40,000 of Taipei's 2.6 million residents have agreed to pay for the service since January. That such a vast and reasonably priced wireless network has attracted so few users in an otherwise tech-hungry metropolis should give pause to civic leaders in Chicago, Philadelphia and dozens of other American cities that are building wireless networks of their own" - NYT June 26 2006
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Sidenote regarding WiFi:
How daily life is affected when WiFi becomes normal, and everyone has their own personal laptop, is something that I studied last year as part of a big research project done jointly by isobar (where I work) and Yahoo!. As well as the usual panel surveys, we did a deep-dive ethnographic study of 15 families across 5 countries - Paris, London, Shanghai, Cologne and Chicago - to look at what happened when we upgraded them from broadband to Wifi, from a desktop to multiple laptops. Some of the findings:
- When internet access is unfettered by wires or lack of devices, it gets used all over the house and more often.
- Very quickly it becomes hard to imagine living without WiFi. It's seen as a time saver, as makes it easier to multitask (eg: watch
TV and shop/chat/pay bills online)
- Internet is used more, as it is always at hand to dip in and out of. It's also became commonly used in combination with
watching TV
- WiFi affected communication too, especially among the teens. IM use skyrocketed and even aspects of family chitchat
when digital too. My favourite quote from the whole study: "We message each other sometimes when we're in the other room,
you say random things like 'you're in trouble' or 'you smell'"!
You can download the whole study for free here.