Broadband will be mainstream (it’s already close to it in some markets) and the vast majority of sites will be designed with a high-speed audience in mind.
“Earlier this month a survey of more than 1,700 people by tickbox.net for Eclipse Internet found 92% said that in the first month after moving into a new home, they'd have to have their broadband; that compares with 32% who'd need to get the curtains up before the month was out…. By contrast, nearly 92% said they could survive the first month without their microwave. “ – The Guardian, May 25 2006
What is sometimes termed “Web 2.0” is already on our doorstep and in 3 years will be firmly established, especially for 17 year olds. Web 2.0 is a collective term for a new breed of online services that are emerging, built around the next generations of Java and Flash technology (AJAX, FLEX, etc). The Internet field is currently experiencing an intense wave of innovation, and some of the leading services in 3 years time probably don’t even exist yet.
Many Web 2.0 services – blogs, communities, tagging, etc – are inherently social in nature, relying on open communication and the participation of users. In 3 years time, not everyone will have a blog or be a regular contributor creating content, but it will be utterly normal to do so.
Search services will remain the gateways to the Internet for users seeking specific information. Google will develop tools to help researchers (including marketers) delve into the giant “database of intentions” that contains details of search queries worldwide – but with tight constraints to ensure that information is not linkable back to individuals due to Privacy concerns. Search Engine Optimisation will continue to evolve, with new techniques being developed to better work with “Web 2.0” software.
The next generation of Search services will emerge, built on the concept of personalising results. This personalisation will happen through a combination of intelligent tracking of past search terms (and the results which were clicked) and the online behaviour of your friends and peers in terms of tagging, bookmarking, and so on. Yahoo! have signalled their commitment in this field via acquiring leading sites of the “social web” (Flickr, Delicious, Webjay) and will be among the leaders in developing personal search.
“The Long Tail” of media consumption will become an even greater force, with online distribution at its heart. On-demand access to video and audio content online will become widespread, and begin to cannibalise part of time spent with traditional TV and radio broadcast channels. TV content owners will make available latest episodes and back catalogues for online viewing as a matter of course, through centralised shops such as iTunes, Amazon and GoogleVideo.