I very nearly didn't include this as a separate section because it seems so old-hat. But then I realised that it feels old-hat to me only because I've been living the future for years, because frankly I am an odd fish when it comes to shopping and buy almost everything online. Why do I do this? Partly it's 'cos it's so easy and I can do it whenever I have time and am in the mood (usually late at night). But also, to be fair, I'm not really a fan of shopping in 'real life' stores because it takes too long to find what you want, assistants are either snooty or busy or know nothing or all three... plus there's the hassle of lugging whatever you bought home, battling crowds in store... it gives me shivers just thinking about it.
[Sidenote: there are a couple of exceptions I must add. I like to occasionally visit bargain hunting outlets like Century21 for the thrill of the hunt - provided I'm not in a rush and it's not sale-time. I'd shop at a farmer's market were one within walking distance. And I absolutely adore the Liberty department store because it has the most inspiring and unusual items for sale, and such a unique ambience - did you know it was built from the timbers of a sunken ship?... . but I digress.... ]
So I'm out on a far extreme when it comes to online shopping. But, I think that over the next 5-10 years, more people will behave a bit like me.
In particular, I think online will become a default port of call for many more product categories than just books and airline tickets, for many people.
It's an interesting mindset shift, you don't notice it happening, just one day when you need to get something - like, oh i don't know, like a new fanbelt for your vacuum cleaner, as I was faced with on Monday, your instinctive reaction isn't to plan to stop in at your local hardware or appliance store. Instead you look online. And, if you live in one of the markets like US and UK where Ebay has really taken off among small sellers, you probably go to Ebay. Type in vacuum cleaner fan belt and voila... there it is, click on 'buy it now', pay instantly via Paypal or whatever, and 2 days later it turns up in the post. What would have been a real hassle pre-Internet took a total of about 2 minutes to find & place order, and I got it several days sooner than if I'd waited till I could get to a shop. (ie: the weekend). A success like that only needs to happen a few times before suddenly online becomes your default port of call for things you don't desperately need right that instant.
Of course, the more that online becomes the default port of call, the more you'll end up spending online. And the more successes you have, the more comfortable you'll get shopping online and thus be more likely to try branching out to other categories, and it's a lovely reinforcing circle.
Except when it isn't.
You only have to get burned once to make you think twice about ordering online, especially for big items. Of course, credit card fraud happens extensively offline too, but somehow you don't feel so personally to blame then. Phishing scams, identity theft, fraud... there's lots of bad stuff that can happen. So, I don't think we're going to wake up in 10 years and everyone will be shopping online for 70% of what they buy. But, I think a not-insignificant minority will be.
There's more I would like to add here at some point too, as I realise this is very UK/US centric. There are lots of parts of the world where due to culture and history, credit cards aren't widespread, and where there is a far higher barrier to overcome in terms of spending money online. But generally, despite all the different starting points, I do believe that the general trend everywhere will be for online shopping as a proportion of total shopping to rise significantly.
The flipside to the rise of Ecommerce is also that many more people are selling things, online. Not only local neighbourhood stores, who suddenly find that online they can extend their reach far beyond driving distance and compete on a more level playing field with the 'big guys'. But also a whole lot of stuff that would otherwise have been thrown away or languished in attics has got a value and there's a thriving enormous car boot sale going 24/7 at places like Ebay among anyone who wants to put something up for sale. This 'long tail' of ecommerce is also one of the factors driving the rise of online shopping, because often it lets you get things that you'd never find for sale otherwise.
Some other slides:
More info and thoughts that i've not yet put into slides: